Iranian Elections
from Control Risks Group [subscription required]

It emerged on 11 January that the Guardian Council has banned thousands of reformist candidates from standing in the parliamentary elections that are scheduled for 20 February, including at least 80 current members of parliament.

This is a calculated political gamble by hardline conservative clerics, who hope to regain control of the parliament and the presidency (in 2005), and eliminate reformist factions from all institutions of government. The Guardian Council habitually vetoes electoral candidates, but the scale of its actions on this occasion is unprecedented. The blacklisting of established senior figures in the reformist movement will provoke a strong response from reformist factions. A protracted political crisis is likely in the run-up to the elections and possibly beyond, which is likely to include widespread popular protests and demonstrations.

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DISQUALIFICATION OF CANDIDATES HERALDS CRISIS OVER FEBRUARY ELECTIONS
It emerged on 11 January that the Guardian Council has banned thousands of reformist candidates from standing in the parliamentary elections that are scheduled for 20 February, including at least 80 current members of parliament.

This is a calculated political gamble by hardline conservative clerics, who hope to regain control of the parliament and the presidency (in 2005), and eliminate reformist factions from all institutions of government. The Guardian Council habitually vetoes electoral candidates, but the scale of its actions on this occasion is unprecedented. The blacklisting of established senior figures in the reformist movement will provoke a strong response from reformist factions. A protracted political crisis is likely in the run-up to the elections and possibly beyond, which is likely to include widespread popular protests and demonstrations.

The Guardian Council is a 12-member committee comprising six clerics appointed directly by the Supreme Leader and six lay lawyers selected by the Supreme Judicial Council, resulting in an inherent strongly conservative bias. It has the power to veto parliamentary legislations and vet electoral candidates and has consistently frustrated the programmes of parliament, which has been dominated by reformist deputies since the previous elections in February 2000, when manouevres by the Guardian Council failed to prevent an overwhelming victory for pro-reform candidates.

Prior to the 2000 elections, only about 10% of candidates were vetoed, compared with around 40% prior to the previous elections in 1996. However, for the forthcoming elections, the Guardian Council has vetoed almost half of the 5,200 registered candidates in an attempt to restore conservative control of parliament. The incumbent parliamentarians who have been excluded include Mohammed Reza Khatami, brother of President Mohammed Khatami and head of the largest pro-reform faction, the Islamic Iran Freedom Party (IIFP); Behzad Nabavi, Deputy Speaker of Parliament; and Mohsen Mirdamadi, another prominent reformist.

Sixty deputies have staged a sit-in in parliament since the vetoes were announced and all 27 provincial governors have threatened to resign in protest. If the Guardian Council does not back down and the conservative-dominated judiciary refuses to re-instate the banned candidates, there is a likelihood of popular demonstrations, protests and a potentially widespread boycott of the elections. However, a credible prospect remains that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will intervene in order to force a compromise and defuse the crisis, as he has done on numerous occasions in the past.

The reform movement has enjoyed overwhelming popular support and would almost certainly retain control of parliament if its candidates are allowed to participate. However, popular disillusionment with the reformists has increased in the past four years as neither parliament nor President Khatami has been able to overcome blocking manouevres by conservatives and pass meaningful legislation. The conservatives are apparently attempting to capitalise on this popular disillusionment by forcibly regaining control of parliament and the presidency, gambling that they will be able to contain any popular backlash.

posted by prof_booty | 10:33 AM