Axis of St00pid: Talks With DPRK Continue
from Control Risks Group [subscription required]

China's government on 27 February announced that six-party talks in Beijing (China) to discuss North Korea's nuclear programme would continue for at least one additional day on 28 February. The talks began on 25 February.

The talks appear to be progressing unevenly with delegates revealing that new initiatives have been made, but that obstacles remain. Unlike the August 2003 talks, these negotiations appear to be tackling issues of substance rather than form and agendas. The parties, including North Korea, have come with the intention of placing significant deals and proposals on the table. This, and the extension, bodes well for a positive outcome from the talks. However, the nuclear crisis will not be resolved at this meeting. This is only the start of the process, and a joint statement or agreement to reconvene is the most that should be expected.

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China's chief negotiator Vice-Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that there were differences and difficulties but that divisions were narrowing. The US delegation said little about the content of the negotiations, but vowed on 27 February to stay until the end of the talks. The US will not have relinquished its insistence that North Korea comprehensively dismantle its nuclear programme under rigorous international supervision. North Korea is known to have reiterated its position that it is willing to freeze its nuclear programme in return for economic rewards, which the US has said it is not willing to provide. South Korea, China, and Russia on 26 February reportedly proposed to provide an economic package that might receive the US' tacit endorsement, but not involvement. Later on 26 February, the North Korean delegation held a press conference to denounce the US' position, deflating hopes of a breakthrough.

North Korea's uranium-enrichment programme is likely to be a major sticking point during the negotiations and it is unclear to what extent it has been addressed. The US wants any eventual solution to include all facets of North Korea's nuclear project, including uranium enrichment, to which the US claims North Korea confessed in 2002 when a US delegation presented incontrovertible evidence, though the North Korean regime later denied this. North Korea already has a plutonium-extraction programme, which the 1994 Agreed Framework sought to tackle. Evidence has mounted of uranium enrichment following revelations that Pakistan's nuclear chief Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan shared nuclear secrets with North Korea.

China's role

The talks' host, China, has received plaudits for its role in bringing the US and North Korea together. It is happy to be playing an important and prestigious diplomatic role. However, it does not want to preside over negotiations that falter and peter out. It will press both sides to engage in meaningful negotiations. It considers North Korea's proposal to freeze its nuclear programme as a step forward and will press the US to reciprocate.

China realises that it has fulfilled an important function for the US and that this has given it leverage in other areas. It may hint that its involvement is, at least in part, conditional on the US adopting a tougher line with Taiwan, which is scheduled to hold a general election and referendums in March.

North Korea's nuclear programme

The regime may already have one or two nuclear devices. Possession of multiple nuclear weapons would enable it to conduct a test, which would elicit alarm in the US and among neighbouring governments. However, it is in North Korea's interests to exaggerate its nuclear arsenal and to nurture fears about its nuclear capability because this strengthens its negotiating position at talks. There is no independent confirmation that the regime has any weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Evidence to suggest that North Korea was exporting its nuclear technology, particularly to rogue regimes or terrorist groups, would trigger a rapid escalation in tensions.

posted by prof_booty | 02:02 PM