Iraqi Constitution
from Control Risks Group [subscription required]

The Iraqi Governing Council on 1 March agreed a basic law that will serve as the interim framework for government after the handover to an Iraqi authority on 30 June.

This was a timetabled step towards the planned transfer of political power from the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) to a sovereign Iraqi government. The transfer is likely to take place on schedule, despite the abandonment of US plans for caucus elections. The interim government is likely to comprise an expanded version of the current Governing Council.

However, negotiations over a permanent constitution remain a potential source of factional tensions in the latter half of 2004, despite the agreement on the interim constitution. This could cause both political schisms and sectarian unrest.

The transfer of political power to an Iraqi authority is unlikely to improve the security situation significantly and could even presage a deterioration if intra-Iraqi tensions increase. The insurgency is likely to continue against coalition military forces, Iraqi government and security interests, and foreign commercial contractors and organisations. Moreover, tensions between rival political, ethnic and confessional factions are likely to be exacerbated by differences over issues such as the country's federal structure, increasing the prospect of communal clashes.

Not quite Washington, Jefferson and Franklin, but I guess we'll take it. If I was the Kurds, I'd be on my best behavior until the V Corps left, then drive due south and shell Baghdad. The have big maps with "Kurdistan" written on them, and the Turks/Saudis/Iranians are scared sh*tless of them.

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The transfer of power

The proposed interim constitution, which has yet to be approved by the US-led CPA, establishes equality of status, an independent judiciary and civilian control of the judiciary. A potential controversy over the status of Islam was avoided with a compromise that recognises Islam as a source, but not the primary source, of legislation. An agreement on representation of women in the government was also reached with a 25% quota for women in the National Assembly.

Kurdish demands for autonomy have been addressed with a concession that allows the Kurdish peshmerga militias to remain in existence as part of a national guard under the control of the regional governments. This opens the way for other factional or ethnic militias to operate as approved regional security forces. The retention of militias is a necessary concession to factional demands at this time, but their continuing existence could prove problematic in the future if serious factional differences emerge.

The transfer of political power - which remains likely to take place at the beginning of July - will create new uncertainties for foreign companies and organisations. Until the interim government is established, the structure of its relationship with foreign companies will remain unclear. The US is likely to retain a highly influential role in decision-making related to the reconstruction programme, but there are likely to be changes to the bureaucratic and legal situation for foreign companies.

posted by prof_booty | 03:00 PM